| Streak | Multiplier | Why |
|---|
| ≥ 5 losses | 0.40x | Heavy tilt protection — pause-equivalent |
| ≥ 3 losses | 0.65x | Protective sizing |
| ≥ 2 losses | 0.85x | Mild caution |
| Mixed or 0–1 | 1.00x | Normal sizing |
| ≥ 4 wins | 0.92x | Mild anti-overconfidence |
| ≥ 7 wins | 0.80x | Long hot streak reverts to mean |
Why anti-overconfidence? Even a brain with positive edge will hit hot streaks just by chance. Continuing to size up after 7 wins ignores the fact that the next outcome is conditionally independent of the streak — but the trader's position size often isn't. Sizing down slightly during streaks protects against the mean reversion that always comes eventually.
The multiplier here compounds with all other size adjustments (uncertainty, OOD, cross-method agreement, hourly performance) in the Unified Predictor.