Economic Events
Fed, CPI, NFP, GDP, ISM — and how the market reacted last time · --
🏦 FOMC — Next Meeting: 2026-06-17/18 ILLUSTRATIVE
FedWatch-style layout — probabilities shown are illustrative, not a live CME feed
Implied target after June meetingCurrent: 4.25-4.50%
8%
62% Hold
24% -25bp
6%
+25bpHOLD-25bp-50bp
Year-end 2026
3.75-4.00%
2 cuts implied
Year-end 2027
3.25-3.50%
4 cuts implied
Terminal (eq.)
3.00%
Long-run dot
📊 Real Yields & Inflation Expectations ILLUSTRATIVE
TenorNominalReal (TIPS)Breakeven
2y4.21%1.84%2.37%
5y3.94%1.62%2.32%
10y3.84%1.58%2.26%
30y3.91%1.61%2.30%
Breakeven = market-implied avg CPI over the tenor. 2y at 2.37% says the market believes the Fed gets back to ~target inflation within 2 years.
📅 This Week LIVE
Times in ET · ForexFactory calendar, refreshed daily · forecast/prior only (no actual prints in the free feed)
When
Event
Forecast
Prior
Country
Impact
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📈 SPY Reaction Histogram — typical CPI-day pattern ILLUSTRATIVE
Typical pattern: hot CPI prints pressure SPY, cool prints lift it. The bars illustrate the shape of that relationship — they are not measured statistics from a specific sample.
🎯 Classic event playbooks ILLUSTRATIVE
Textbook event setups with illustrative stats — these are NOT desk results and NOT a track record.
SetupAvg P/LHit
Long TLT 30min before NFP (vol carry)+0.42%64%
SPY straddle 1hr before CPI (gamma)+18%58%
VIX short 30min after FOMC presser-3.4%71%
SPY fade open after hot CPI (mean rev)+0.58%62%
Long DXY before ISM Mfg (USD beat)+0.18%54%
Sector rotation 24h post-GDP (cyclicals)+0.72%59%
Bond duration trade after dot plot dovish+1.84%68%
🗓 High-Impact This Week LIVE
Only High-impact releases from the same feed - the prints that move SPY/TLT/DXY
When
Event
Forecast
Prior
Country
Impact
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CPI YoY — shape of the cycle ILLUSTRATIVE
Unemployment Rate — shape of the cycle ILLUSTRATIVE