Economic Events
Fed, CPI, NFP, GDP, ISM — and how the market reacted last time · --
🏦 FOMC — Next Meeting: 2026-06-17/18
From CME FedWatch (synthetic for design)
Implied target after June meetingCurrent: 4.25-4.50%
8%
62% Hold
24% -25bp
6%
+25bpHOLD-25bp-50bp
Year-end 2026
3.75-4.00%
2 cuts implied
Year-end 2027
3.25-3.50%
4 cuts implied
Terminal (eq.)
3.00%
Long-run dot
📊 Real Yields & Inflation Expectations
TenorNominalReal (TIPS)Breakeven
2y4.21%1.84%2.37%
5y3.94%1.62%2.32%
10y3.84%1.58%2.26%
30y3.91%1.61%2.30%
Breakeven = market-implied avg CPI over the tenor. 2y at 2.37% says the market believes the Fed gets back to ~target inflation within 2 years.
📅 This Week
Times in ET · S = Surprise vs consensus
When
Event
Consensus
Prior
Actual
Impact
📈 SPY Reaction Histogram — past 24 CPI prints
SPY % return same-day post-CPI, binned by surprise relative to consensus. Big upside surprises → -1.4% avg; big downside surprises → +1.2% avg.
🎯 Top "Event Edges" — desk realized
SetupAvg P/LHit
Long TLT 30min before NFP (vol carry)+0.42%64%
SPY straddle 1hr before CPI (gamma)+18%58%
VIX short 30min after FOMC presser-3.4%71%
SPY fade open after hot CPI (mean rev)+0.58%62%
Long DXY before ISM Mfg (USD beat)+0.18%54%
Sector rotation 24h post-GDP (cyclicals)+0.72%59%
Bond duration trade after dot plot dovish+1.84%68%
🗓 Upcoming — next 30 days
Sorted by date · 7-day avg historical reaction in last column
Date
Event
Consensus
Prior
SPY Avg ±
Impact
CPI YoY — 5 years
Unemployment Rate — 5 years