First-day pop trades

Avg first-day return: +18% (last 5 yrs). Buy at open only if priced at low end of range. High end + oversubscription = often gap-fade by close.

Lockup expiry (180d)

Insider supply hits market. Average drawdown around lockup: −8% in the 30 days before. Short candidates if up >50% from IPO.

Direct listing / SPAC

No underwriter stabilization → more volatile day 1. Higher pop potential AND higher gap-down risk. Wait 60-90 min for fair-value discovery.