โš™ Backtest Assumptions
Best Threshold
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Best Sim P&L
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Trades Generated
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Expectancy / Trade
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$ avg per trade
๐Ÿ“Š P&L by Confidence Threshold
THRESHOLD
TRADES
WIN %
SIM $ P&L
AVG / TRADE
P&L BAR
๐Ÿ“ˆ Equity Curve โ€” best threshold
๐Ÿง  How to read this
Each row simulates: "if you took a trade every time the model output โ‰ฅ X% (or โ‰ค 1-X%), risking $Y per trade with win-R and loss-R as specified, what would your P&L be?" Higher thresholds = fewer trades, higher win rate but missing setups. Sweet spot is usually around 60-70% โ€” enough confidence to expect a winning hit rate, but not so picky that you miss most signals.
If a threshold is unprofitable, the model isn't yet good enough at that confidence level โ€” either needs more training data or that confidence range needs more samples to calibrate.