Book size
Kelly fraction
Max book exposure
% of book โ€” hard cap across all positions
๐Ÿ“ Define your bets
SYMBOL
P(WIN)
R:R
RISK / SHARE
SECTOR
๐ŸŽฏ Recommended sizing
SYMBOL
RAW KELLY
ADJUSTED
SHARES
RISK $
๐Ÿ“Š Sizing breakdown
๐ŸŽฒ Edge distribution
๐Ÿ’ก The math
Single-bet Kelly: f* = (p ร— b โˆ’ q) / b where p = win prob, q = 1โˆ’p, b = win:loss ratio.
Multi-bet correlation adjustment: bets in the same sector share risk. The brain reduces each Kelly fraction by a correlation penalty when 2+ bets are in the same sector.
Final size is the minimum of: (a) fractional Kelly, (b) per-bet 5% cap, (c) total book exposure cap distributed.

Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but emotionally brutal โ€” drawdowns are extreme. 1/4 Kelly is the standard for trading. Don't go above 1/2 Kelly unless you're robotically disciplined.