Earnings beats + raise

Strongest single-catalyst move. Avg 1d +5.4%, 5d +6.8% historically. Drift continues for 3-5 sessions.

Analyst upgrades

Avg 1d +1.8% but fades 50% by day 3. Best to fade if move >3% on upgrade alone.

M&A rumors

Initial pop avg +12% on confirmed deals. Rumored deals retrace 60% within 2 weeks if no confirmation.