Fixed Fractional (recommended baseline)
112 shares
Risk $500 / stop $4.47 = 112 shares. Most-used institutional default. Doesn't break you on long losing streaks.
Kelly Optimal (¼-Kelly applied)
298 shares
Full Kelly: 51% of account — too aggressive. ¼ Kelly (12.8%) more realistic for parameter uncertainty.
ATR-based (volatility-adjusted stop)
60 shares
Stop at $129.91 (2 × ATR below entry). Adjusts size for volatility — high-vol names get smaller positions.
Vol-Targeted (constant portfolio vol)
103 shares
Notional $14,286. Caps each position so its contribution to portfolio vol matches target. Best for multi-asset books.
Monte Carlo simulation: 500 trades with your WR/avg-R, varying position sizing. Max drawdown shown for each method. Full Kelly's drawdowns are emotionally untradable — most pros use ¼ or ⅛ Kelly for this reason.