โš™ Parameters
Risk of Ruin
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P(hit ruin threshold)
Expected Outcome
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Mean ending capital
Best 5% (P95)
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Worst 5% (P5)
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๐Ÿ“Š Ending capital distribution (10,000 paths)
๐Ÿง  Reading the result
๐Ÿ“š The math
Each "trade" draws from your win-rate distribution: with probability p you win winR ร— risk, otherwise you lose lossR ร— risk. The simulator runs your full sequence of N trades 10,000 times and counts how often you hit the ruin threshold before finishing. Industry rule-of-thumb: risk-of-ruin should be <1% for serious capital. If yours is >5%, reduce per-trade risk before considering it a real edge.