Crowd thinks X · model thinks Y · disagreements are alpha · --
Contrarian alpha lives here. When sentiment is bullish but the model says BEAR (or vice versa), that's where the edge is largest. Crowd-following trades are crowded; model-led divergent trades have less competition.
Strong Divergences
--
|sentiment - model| ≥ 30
Crowd Says Bull / Model Bear
--
Fade candidates
Crowd Says Bear / Model Bull
--
Contrarian buys
In Agreement
--
Both bull or both bear
📊 Sentiment × Model Scatter
X = sentiment score (-10 to +10) · Y = model probability % · top-left & bottom-right corners = strongest divergences