<13 · Complacency

Buy cheap puts as hedges. Vol-selling tail risk elevated. Bull markets often top here.

13–18 · Normal

Bull bias intact. Trend-following works. Sell premium with managed risk.

18–25 · Elevated

Caution. Reduce size, tighten stops. Premium-selling juicy but gamma painful.

25+ · Stress

Spike regime. Mean-revert in equities historically works ~70% of time. Long vol blow up here.