Volatility Cone — bpleone / trade

📊 Volatility Cone — Realized Vol by Lookback

Each lookback period shows the historical distribution of realized vol (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th percentiles) over the past year. Current IV (cyan dot) at the relevant maturity tells you if implied is rich vs realized history.

Trade implication: When IV plots above the 75th percentile band, premium-selling structures (iron condors, strangle shorts, calendars) have positive edge. When below the 25th, long-vol convexity is cheap — buy straddles or VIX calls.

🌡️ IV Rank Leaderboard — Universe

Symbol	Current IV	IV Rank	IV %ile	52w Range	Action
SMCI	78.4%	92	96th	34 — 92%	SELL VOL
RIVN	78.2%	88	94th	42 — 98%	SELL VOL
TSLA	52.4%	62	72nd	32 — 78%	SELL VOL
COIN	68.4%	58	64th	42 — 102%	CONDOR
PLTR	62.4%	52	58th	38 — 84%	CONDOR
NVDA	38.4%	42	48th	24 — 68%	CONDOR
AMD	42.1%	38	42nd	28 — 72%	—
META	32.8%	32	38th	22 — 58%	—
AAPL	28.4%	22	28th	18 — 48%	—
QQQ	18.4%	14	18th	11 — 38%	BUY VOL
SPY	14.8%	8	12th	9 — 32%	BUY VOL

📚 The IV/RV Edge Read

Premium sellers have a structural edge. Over long horizons, IV trades 1-3 vol points above realized — a "volatility risk premium" investors pay for option insurance. That's why systematic short-vol strategies (iron condors, premium selling) can produce positive expectancy.

Current desk read:

Names with IV rank > 60 = sell premium (iron condors, short straddles 30-45 DTE)
Names with IV rank < 20 = long premium / convexity (long calls, straddles)
NVDA at IV rank 42 = neutral zone. Use directional spreads, not pure vol bets.

⚠ Caveat: Sellers blow up in tail events. Always size for the unhedged worst case (3σ move), not the median outcome.