🟢 Contango term structure
Back-month IV > front-month. Normal regime. Volatility sellers favored: sell front, buy back (calendar spreads).
🔴 Backwardation
Front-month IV > back-month. Stress signal (event risk, earnings, sell-off). Favor buying front-month protection.
⚖️ Smile vs Smirk
Equity puts typically priced richer (crash hedge demand). When call wing matches/exceeds, market thinks upside surprise is possible — bullish skew shift.