Long-vol (straddle/strangle): past avg-abs-move > IV-implied move by 30%+. Market is under-pricing volatility — buy it.
IV-crush (short-vol / iron condor): IV-implied move > past avg-abs-move by 30%+. Market over-priced vol — sell premium.
Directional long/short: past 4 reactions same-side AND avg > 3% AND consistent (low stdev).
Skip: noisy history, no clear edge.
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Long-vol picks
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IV-crush picks
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Directional picks
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